The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a market report on the outlook for the renewable energy market in 2023 and 2024. According to the report, global added renewable energy installation capacity is set to soar from 107GW in 2023 to over 440GW, marking the largest increase in history. Solar energy is projected to remain the primary source of global renewable energy capacity expansion in 2023, accounting for 286GW, with distributed photovoltaic (PV) contributing to nearly half of the new capacity. By 2024, the figure is expected to grow to nearly 310GW due to decreasing component prices, extensive deployment of distributed PV systems, and policy support for large-scale power plant deployment.

However, due to the implementation of Law No. 14,300 at the beginning of 2022, which has brought changes to the distributed market, the IEA indicates that Brazil’s added capacity may decrease from 2023 to 2024. Compared to the forecast from December 2021, the IEA has increased its projections for renewable energy installation capacity in 2023 and 2024 by 38%.

The IEA states that in the European Union, residential and commercial solar PV systems are expected to contribute to 74% of the growth, with 82% of the increase coming from six major markets: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy, and Sweden.

Two major trends have prompted the IEA to revise its forecasts: the increasing attractiveness of self-consumption energy business cases since January 2021 and the market conditions triggered by Russia's attack on Ukraine. The IEA also raised its growth forecast for utility-scale PV systems, although the growth rate is expected to be much smaller due to challenges in permitting, unfinished subscription auctions, and longer development timelines.

Competitive auctions are still expected to be the primary procurement method in Europe, accounting for at least 65% of the growth in renewable energy installation capacity from 2022 to 2024. The IEA states, "Nearly half of this growth will come from auctions of two-way fixed price differential contracts led by Poland, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain."

By 2024, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and commercial factories are expected to constitute 22% of the new energy installation capacity in Europe. Enterprise power purchase agreements led by Spain, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark will dominate the unused project stakes. Additionally, the IEA suggests that the UK, Italy, and Poland may also see some unsubsidized projects.

The organization also states, "While devices developed under a fully commercial model may represent a minority, PPA projects are expected to enhance revenue through the combination of niche business models."

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