The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently pointed out that Australia in 2023 ~ 2028 installed capacity of installed rooftop photovoltaic systems will decline faster than it expected. And the country is facing problems in terms of grid integration and power system saturation, leading the agency to revise its growth expectations for installed renewable energy capacity in Australia.

The IEA cited grid bottlenecks, a lack of new support from government departments, and rising investment costs as reasons for the agency's downward revision of its forecast for the development of installed renewable energy capacity growth in Australia by more than 10 percent.

The agency also emphasized that "continued policy uncertainty" following Australia's early achievement of the Large Scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) is one of the reasons for the downward revision of the country's forecast for new renewable energy capacity from 2023 to 2028.

The IEA said, "Notably, the distributed PV market has been a major source of installed renewable capacity growth in Australia in recent years, and is expected to see a faster-than-expected decline in installed capacity from rooftop PV systems due to challenges with power system saturation and grid integration." The agency noted that governments around the world need to address these issues or they may struggle to meet the goal of tripling installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, which was agreed at the COP28 climate summit last December.

More than 100 countries, including Australia, made commitments at the conference to triple the installed renewable energy capacity developed globally by 2030.

Despite the forecasted slowdown in the Australian rooftop PV market, the IEA remains bullish on the prospects for the global PV market, and expects that new global installed capacity of PV systems and wind facilities will account for 95% of global renewable energy additions between 2023 and 2028.

In 2023, the installed capacity of new renewable energy in the global energy system increased by 50% to nearly 510GW, of which the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems accounted for three-fourths of the global installed capacity of new renewable energy.

The agency's analysis shows that under existing policy and market conditions, global installed renewable energy capacity is expected to grow to 7,300 GW over the next five years. installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind power facilities will account for 95% of the world's new installed renewable energy capacity, and by the beginning of 2025, renewable energy will have replaced coal as the world's largest source of electricity generation.

The report also pointed out that the price of PV modules fell by nearly 50% year-on-year in 2023, and the trend of cost reduction and rapid deployment will continue, with global PV module production capacity expected to reach 1,100GW by the end of 2024, which will significantly exceed demand.

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